Nonfarm Productivity

The Non-farm Productivity released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Department of Labor shows the output per Hour of labor worked. Non-farm Productivity indicates the overall business health in the US, which has an influence on GDP. A high reading is positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is negative (or bearish).

Most recent - Thursday 5 June 2025 12:30

Previous
-0.8%
Revised
-
Forecast
-0.7%
Actual
-1.5%

Lower numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for xxx/USD pairs and bearish for USD/xxx pairs.

Next event - Thursday 7 August 2025 12:30

Previous
-1.5%
Forecast
2.5%
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is medium.

The consensus forecast for Nonfarm Productivity is 2.5%. A higher value than forecast tends to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Nonfarm Productivity was -1.5% against a forecast of -0.7%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Thursday 5 June 2025 12:30
-0.7%
-1.5%
Thursday 8 May 2025 12:30
-0.4%
-0.8%
Thursday 6 March 2025 13:30
1.2%
1.5%
Thursday 6 February 2025 13:30
1.7%
1.2%
Tuesday 10 December 2024 13:30
2.2%
2.2%
Thursday 7 November 2024 13:30
2.3%
2.2%
Thursday 5 September 2024 12:30
2.3%
2.5%
Thursday 1 August 2024 12:30
1.7%
2.3%
Thursday 6 June 2024 12:30
0.1%
0.2%
Thursday 2 May 2024 12:30
0.8%
0.3%
Thursday 7 March 2024 13:30
3.1%
3.2%
Thursday 1 February 2024 13:30
2.5%
3.2%
Wednesday 6 December 2023 13:30
4.9%
5.2%
Thursday 2 November 2023 12:30
4.2%
4.7%
Thursday 7 September 2023 12:30
3.8%
3.5%
Thursday 3 August 2023 12:30
2%
3.7%
Thursday 1 June 2023 12:30
-2.4%
-2.1%
Thursday 4 May 2023 12:30
-1.8%
-2.7%
Thursday 2 March 2023 13:30
2.6%
1.7%
Thursday 2 February 2023 13:30
2.4%
3%
Wednesday 7 December 2022 13:30
0.5%
0.8%
Thursday 3 November 2022 12:30
0.6%
0.3%
Thursday 1 September 2022 12:30
-4.5%
-4.1%
Tuesday 9 August 2022 12:30
-4.7%
-4.6%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Nonfarm Productivity result:

PreviousLatest
ISM Services Employment IndexBearish change47.246.4
ISM Services New Orders IndexBearish change51.350.3
ISM Services PMIBearish change50.850.1
ISM Services Prices PaidBullish change67.569.9
S&P Global Composite PMIBullish change54.655.1
Factory Orders (MoM)Bearish change8.3%-4.8%
Michigan Consumer Expectations IndexBearish change58.657.7
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBearish change61.861.7
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationsBullish change4.4%4.5%
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBearish change3.6%3.4%
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBearish change4543.4
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBullish change46.447.1
ISM Manufacturing PMIBearish change4948
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBearish change69.764.8
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.3%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)Bullish change3.8%3.9%
Labor Force Participation RateBearish change62.3%62.2%
Nonfarm PayrollsBullish change14K73K
U6 Underemployment RateBearish change7.7%7.9%
Unemployment RateBearish change4.1%4.2%
Chicago PMIBullish change40.447.1
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.3%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)(no change)2.8%2.8%
Employment Cost Index(no change)0.9%0.9%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change217K218K
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.3%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bullish change2.4%2.6%
Personal Income (MoM)Bullish change-0.4%0.3%
Personal SpendingBullish change0%0.3%
Challenger Job CutsBullish change47.999K62.075K
Fed Interest Rate Decision(no change)4.5%4.5%
Pending Home Sales (MoM)Bearish change1.8%-0.8%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)Bearish change3.5%2.5%
Gross Domestic Product AnnualizedBullish change-0.5%3%
Gross Domestic Product Price IndexBearish change3.8%2%
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)Bearish change3.7%2.1%
ADP Employment ChangeBullish change-23K104K
JOLTS Job OpeningsBearish change7.771M7.437M
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bullish change-0.3%-0.2%
Durable Goods OrdersBearish change16.5%-9.3%
Durable Goods Orders ex DefenseBearish change15.7%-9.4%
Durable Goods Orders ex TransportationBearish change0.6%0.2%
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex AircraftBearish change2%-0.7%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bullish change-11.6%0.6%
S&P Global Composite PMIBullish change52.954.6
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIBearish change5249.5
S&P Global Services PMIBullish change52.955.2
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change221K217K
Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)Bearish change1%-2.7%

About Nonfarm Productivity

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Category:Labor Market
Frequency:Quarterly
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