Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a percentage that surges from dividing the number of unemployed workers by the total civilian labor force. It represents the percentage of people actively seeking employment and willing to work. Usually, as a higher rate is seen in recessionary economies, while on the ​contrary, a growing economy sees its unemployment rate decreasing. Therefore, a decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish), although by itself, the number can't determinate the markets move as it depends on the headline reading, the Nonfarm Payroll.

Most recent - Friday 1 August 2025 12:30

Previous
4.1%
Revised
-
Forecast
4.2%
Actual
4.2%

Next event - Friday 5 September 2025 12:30

Previous
-
Forecast
-
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is medium.

There is no forecast value for Unemployment Rate yet - check back for updates.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Unemployment Rate was 4.2% against a forecast of 4.2%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Friday 1 August 2025 12:30
4.2%
4.2%
Thursday 3 July 2025 12:30
4.3%
4.1%
Friday 6 June 2025 12:30
4.2%
4.2%
Friday 2 May 2025 12:30
4.2%
4.2%
Friday 4 April 2025 12:30
4.1%
4.2%
Friday 7 March 2025 13:30
4%
4.1%
Friday 7 February 2025 13:30
4.1%
4%
Friday 10 January 2025 13:30
4.2%
4.1%
Friday 6 December 2024 13:30
4.2%
4.2%
Friday 1 November 2024 12:30
4.1%
4.1%
Friday 4 October 2024 12:30
4.2%
4.1%
Friday 6 September 2024 12:30
4.2%
4.2%
Friday 2 August 2024 12:30
4.1%
4.3%
Friday 5 July 2024 12:30
4%
4.1%
Friday 7 June 2024 12:30
3.9%
4%
Friday 3 May 2024 12:30
3.8%
3.9%
Friday 5 April 2024 12:30
3.9%
3.8%
Friday 8 March 2024 13:30
3.7%
3.9%
Friday 2 February 2024 13:30
3.8%
3.7%
Friday 5 January 2024 13:30
3.8%
3.7%
Friday 8 December 2023 13:30
3.9%
3.7%
Friday 3 November 2023 12:30
3.8%
3.9%
Friday 6 October 2023 12:30
3.7%
3.8%
Friday 1 September 2023 12:30
3.5%
3.8%
Friday 4 August 2023 12:30
3.6%
3.5%
Friday 7 July 2023 12:30
3.6%
3.6%
Friday 2 June 2023 12:30
3.5%
3.7%
Friday 5 May 2023 12:30
3.5%
3.4%
Friday 7 April 2023 12:30
3.6%
3.5%
Friday 10 March 2023 13:30
3.4%
3.6%
Friday 3 February 2023 13:30
3.6%
3.4%
Friday 6 January 2023 13:30
3.7%
3.5%
Friday 2 December 2022 13:30
3.7%
3.7%
Friday 4 November 2022 12:30
3.6%
3.7%
Friday 7 October 2022 12:30
3.7%
3.5%
Friday 2 September 2022 12:30
3.5%
3.7%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Unemployment Rate result:

PreviousLatest
ISM Services Employment IndexBearish change47.246.4
ISM Services New Orders IndexBearish change51.350.3
ISM Services PMIBearish change50.850.1
ISM Services Prices PaidBullish change67.569.9
S&P Global Composite PMIBullish change54.655.1
Factory Orders (MoM)Bearish change8.3%-4.8%
Michigan Consumer Expectations IndexBearish change58.657.7
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBearish change61.861.7
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationsBullish change4.4%4.5%
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBearish change3.6%3.4%
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBearish change4543.4
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBullish change46.447.1
ISM Manufacturing PMIBearish change4948
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBearish change69.764.8
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.3%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)Bullish change3.8%3.9%
Labor Force Participation RateBearish change62.3%62.2%
Nonfarm PayrollsBullish change14K73K
U6 Underemployment RateBearish change7.7%7.9%
Chicago PMIBullish change40.447.1
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.3%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)(no change)2.8%2.8%
Employment Cost Index(no change)0.9%0.9%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change217K218K
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.3%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bullish change2.4%2.6%
Personal Income (MoM)Bullish change-0.4%0.3%
Personal SpendingBullish change0%0.3%
Challenger Job CutsBullish change47.999K62.075K
Fed Interest Rate Decision(no change)4.5%4.5%
Pending Home Sales (MoM)Bearish change1.8%-0.8%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)Bearish change3.5%2.5%
Gross Domestic Product AnnualizedBullish change-0.5%3%
Gross Domestic Product Price IndexBearish change3.8%2%
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)Bearish change3.7%2.1%
ADP Employment ChangeBullish change-23K104K
JOLTS Job OpeningsBearish change7.771M7.437M
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bullish change-0.3%-0.2%
Durable Goods OrdersBearish change16.5%-9.3%
Durable Goods Orders ex DefenseBearish change15.7%-9.4%
Durable Goods Orders ex TransportationBearish change0.6%0.2%
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex AircraftBearish change2%-0.7%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bullish change-11.6%0.6%
S&P Global Composite PMIBullish change52.954.6
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIBearish change5249.5
S&P Global Services PMIBullish change52.955.2
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change221K217K
Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)Bearish change1%-2.7%

About Unemployment Rate

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:
Category:Labor Market
Frequency:Monthly
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